Introduction
Population aging is constituted by a shift in the distribution of a country’s population towards greater ages. Thus an increase in the population’s mean or median age, a decline in the fraction of the population composed of children, or a rise in the fraction of the population that is elderly are all aspects of population aging.
Nowadays, population aging is taking place in many developed countries; it has become a worldwide phenomenon, which causes many serious problems to society. Hong Kong is prosperous. Nowadays, the quality of life of residents here becomes rampant year by year. However, Hong Kong is also suffering from the problem of the population aging. The population of Hong Kong is currently aging at a moderate pace. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over has increased from 9. 8% in 1995 to 12. 1% in 2005.
Besides, as the baby boomers start to become older persons in the middle of the next decade, the population will age at a relatively fast pace in Hong Kong. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase to 26. 8% in 2033. The problem of population aging can cause many negative effects on society. For example, an aging population will have some negative impacts on the labor force as it will lower the average productivity of labor in Hong Kong. Also, it will increase the burden on medical services in Hong Kong.
As a result, we should take the problem of population aging seriously. Why is the population aging so serious in Hong Kong? What problems will be caused by population aging? What should the government do to relieve the problem? We will discuss it later on. This Project will discuss the past, present, and future trends of the age structure of Hong Kong, with emphasis on the ageing of the population and its impacts on the labor force, medical services, and the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme (CSSA).
Vision, Mission & Definition
Vision
To investigate the past, present, and future trends of the age structure of Hong Kong, with emphasis on the ageing of the population and its impacts on the labor force, medical services, and the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme (CSSA).
Mission
To prove the existence of population aging. To analyze the problems caused by the population aging. To estimate the future trends of the age structure of Hong Kong and give suggestions to relieve the problem of population aging.
Definition
- Population aging: Population aging is constituted by a shift in the distribution of a country’s population towards greater ages. Thus an increase in the population’s mean or median age, a decline in the fraction of the population composed of children, or a rise in the fraction of the population that is elderly are all aspects of population aging.
- Labor force: The labor force refers to the land-based noninstitutional population aged 15 and over who satisfy the criteria for inclusion in the employed population or the unemployed population.
- Birth rate: The ratio of total live births to total population in a specified community or area over a specified period of time. The birthrate is often expressed as the number of live births per 1,000 of the population per year.
- Death rate: The ratio of total deaths to the total population in a specified community or area over a specified period of time. The death rate is often expressed as the number of deaths per 1,000 of the population per year. Also called the fatality rate.
- Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme (CSSA): This scheme provides a safety net to meet the basic needs of those who cannot support themselves financially.
The Population Structure of Hong Kong
Introduction of Population Structure in Hong Kong
A long time ago, Hong Kong was a small village. The population level of Hong Kong was low. After 1945, Hong Kong’s population recovered quickly, as a wave of mainland migrants arrived for refuge from the ongoing Chinese Civil War. With the proclamation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, more migrants fled to Hong Kong from fear of persecution by the Communist Party. As a result, there was a large influx of refugees from the mainland, causing a 74% population growth in the 1950s. In the 1960s – 1980s, it was time for the baby boom. In 1971, every woman gave birth to 3. 5 babies on average, causing an upsurge in population.
Also, as the economy developed significantly in those 30 years, there were many immigrants coming to Hong Kong. Therefore, population has risen from 3,130,000 in 1960 to 5,800,000 in 1990. Nowadays, Hong Kong’s population has nearly 700 million. However, the population of 65 years old or above increases from 408542 to 852796 Thus, the problem of population aging exists in Hong Kong.
Birth Rate and Death Rate
According to the above information, we have known that the population of Hong Kong has increased a lot from the past century.
Despite the rapid population growth, Hong Kong also has a low birth rate and low death rate, which causes a special phenomenon — population aging. Nowadays, the birth rate in Hong Kong is declining rapidly. Most of the married couples in Hong Kong choose to have no more than two children or even none. It is because it takes a lot to raise a child. Another reason is the change in Hong Kong’s production system. In the past, Hong Kong citizen’s income mainly comes from agriculture and fishing, but now, Hong Kong’s production system focuses on finance and tourism. People no longer need as many children to help as in the past.
So parents might choose not to have so many children instead. These lead to the phenomenon of the low birth rate in Hong Kong. On the other hand, as there is an improvement in technology and medical services, there is an increase in the life expectancy of Hong Kong people. So the death rate also is low in Hong Kong. As a result, there is a decline in the fraction of the population composed of children and a rise in the fraction of the population that is elderly.
More about Population Aging in Hong Kong
As mentioned in 1. 1, the low birth rate and low death rate in Hong Kong cause the problem of population aging.
The problem of population aging can cause many negative effects on society. For example, an aging population will have some negative impacts on the labor force as it will lower the average productivity of labor in Hong Kong. Also, it will increase the burden on medical services in Hong Kong in the future. Besides, it will also increase the demand for the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme (CSSA). As a result, we should take the problem of population aging seriously. The percentage of 65+people was increasing at a steady rate from 1986 to 2006.
It shows that many of the 0 elderly are living in the old district 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 and the inner city. Most of the elderly Year are living in Wong Tai Sin District (17. 8%). Besides Wong Tai Sin District, there are also many people living in Sham Shui Po and Kwan Tong, which counted for 16. 7%, and 16% respectively.
The median age of Wong Tai Sin district is the highest, which is 42. 65+
The Proportion of Population Aged 65 and over
Islands District Sha Tin District Sai Kung District North District Tai Po District Tuen Mun District Yuen Long District Kwai Tsing District Tsuen Wan District Kwun Tong District Wong Tai Sin District Kowloon City District Sham Shui Po District Yau Tsim Mong District Eastern District Southern District Wan Chai District Proportion of the population (%)Aged 65 and over 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 Central and Western District Age Central and Western District
Wan Chai District Eastern District Southern District Yau Tsim Mong District Sham Shui Po District Kowloon City District Wong Tai Sin District Kwun Tong District Kwai Tsing District Tsuen Wan District Tuen Mun District Yuen Long District North District Tai Po District Sha Tin District Sai Kung District Islands District Percentage 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Median Age, 2006 Age District District Chart 4: Proportion of population (Aged 65 and over) Chart 5: Median age of Hong Kong citizens, 2006 Source: 2006 Population By-Census: Basic Tables for District Council Districts
Working Older Persons by Monthly Income from Main Employment, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 30000 25000 20000 Number 15000 1991 1996 10000 2001 5000 2006 0 Monthly income Chart 6: Working Older Persons by Monthly Income from Main Employment, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Source: 2001 Population Census Thematic Report – Old Persons, 2006 Population By-Census Thematic Report – Old Persons From the Chart 6, it shows the monthly Income of working elderly were generally increasing from 1991 to 2006. There was a sharp decrease in the number of elderly in low-income groups. (less than $4000).
On the other hand, the number of elderly in the middle and high-income groups was generally increasing (more than $4000). This shows that the wealth of working elderly was increasing in the past decade.
The Proportion of Population by Living Arrangement of Old Persons
1991 to 2006 60 50 40 Percentage 30 20 10 0 Living alone Living with spouse Living with child(ren) only 1991 1996 2001 the Year 2006 Living in a non-domestic household
Who lives with the elderly? Most of the elderly were living with a spouse, the percentage was increasing from 1991 to 2006 and it has exceeded 50% in 2001. Besides living with a spouse, there are also many elderly living with children, but its percentage was decreasing from 1996 to 2006. The proportion of elderly living alone and in the non-domestic household only counted for a small proportion. Both of them were closed to 10% in 2006.
Besides, there were also many elderly living in Public Rental housing, which is counted for 315242.
On the other hand, over 100000 elderly were living in Subsidized Sale Flats. Therefore, we can conclude that mainly of the elderly in Hong Kong were living in Private permanent Housing, Public Rental Housing, and Subsidized Sale Flats. In conclusion, the problem of population aging was caused by a low birth rate and low death rate in Hong Kong. So there is a decline in the fraction of the population composed of children and a rise in the fraction of the population. Many of the elderly are living in the old district and inner city and most of the elderly are Page 8 living in Wong Tai Sin District.
As the Hong Kong population is aging, we need to treat it seriously.
The Effects of Population Aging
Population aging causes many negative effects on society, we will analyze those effects from three aspects.
Economic effects
Effects on public medical service
Effects on Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme (CSSA)
Economic Effects
Population aging will lead to a decline in the fraction of the population composed of children and a rise in the fraction of the population that is elderly. What are the effects on economic? Population aging would age the economic active population.
It means that in the economic active group, the proportion of the elderly would increase while the proportion of young people will decrease. Economically Active Population by Sex and Age Group, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 1200000 1000000 800000 1986 1991 600000 1996 Number 400000 2001 2006 200000 0 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group.
On the other hand, the Economically Active population of old people(65+) has decreased slightly from 1996 to 2006.
According to Chat 10, the economically active population of old people has decreased from 2. 9% in 1986 to 1. 7% in 2006. Overall, we can see that the labor force in Hong Kong is aging. Projected Labour Force Participation Rates, 2007 to 2026 62 60 Percentage 58 56 54 15+ 52 50 Year. According to the data of the Statistic Department, we have worked out the Projected Labour Force Participation rates from 2007 to 2026.
The Projected Labour Force Participation rates will decrease in the future. It is estimated that the will decrease from 61. 5% in 2007 to 55% in 2026. Page 10 To conclude, the prospect of the labor force in Hong Kong is not optimistic. It is because the problem of population aging has aged the labor force in Hong Kong. From now on, labor in Hong Kong is getting older and older. Besides, the Labor Force Participation rates are expected to decrease in the future. This means that the total labor supply will decrease in the future.
Public Medical Service
Populations aging also will heavier the burden on medical services in Hong Kong, Nowadays, the demand for public medical services is already exceeding its supply. If the number of elderly increase in the future, it will increase the demand for public medical services. Thus, the excess demand for public medical services will become more and more. It will cause negative effects on society. For example, people need to wait for a long time before using medical services as the demand is so large. Also, the government needs to spend a lot of money on public medical expenses.
The following are the statistics concerning public medical services: Geriatric services, 2003 to 2007. According to the above chart, the number of outreach Attendances has increased a lot from 2003 to 2007. In 2003, the number of attendances was below 300000. However, the number of attendances has reached 500000 in 2007
The number of Geriatric day Hospital Attendances was increasing from 2003 to 2004. In 2003, the number of Geriatric day Hospital Attendances was just 80000. However, the number of attendances has reached 120000 in 2007. The number of visiting Medical Officer Attendances was increasing from 2003 to 2007. The number of visiting medical officer attendances was below 30000 in 2003. However, is has reached 120000 in 2007.
Government Subvention to Hospital Authority
Nowadays, many poor people in Hong Kong are protected by the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme (CSSA). This scheme provides a safety net to meet the basic needs of those who cannot support themselves financially. In fact, most of the recipients of CSSA are people of old age.
Besides the elderly, the recipients of CSSA cases also included people in permanent disability, ill health, single parent, low earnings, unemployed, and others. Population aging would increase the number of elderly. This means that it will increase the demand for CSSA, so it will increase the burden born by CSSA. If this situation continues in the future, the government expenditure on the CSSA scheme will greatly increase.
It shows that many of the recipients of CSSA are people that aged over 60. And the figures for recipients aged over 60 was increasing from 1996 to 2006. From 1996 to 2006, the total number of recipients that aged over 60 has increased from 109012 in 1996 to 187776 in 2006. Number of CSSA cases by category of case, 1996 to 2006 180000 160000 140000 120000 Old age
Number 100000 of 80000 cases Permanent disability Ill health Single parent 60000 Low earnings 40000 Unemployment 20000 Others 0 Year. It shows that most of the CSSA cases are related to old age. The trend of CSSA cases related to old age was also increasing. From 1996 to 2006, the number of CSSA cases related to old age has increased from 95104 to 152507.
It has increased by 57403 cases from ten years. The increasing rate is quite amazing.
It was also increasing from 1996 to 2007. besides the Disability Allowance, the old age allowance also was increasing from 1996 to 2007. In conclusion, population aging will cause many problems in society. In an economical view, it will age the labor force of Hong Kong and lower its productivity. Besides, it will increase the demand for public medical services as the elderly are more likely to suffer from health problems. Furthermore, it will increase the burden born by the Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme (CSSA).
Effects on Elder Abuse
What is Elder Abuse? Elder abuse is doing something or failing to do something that results in harm to an elderly person or puts a helpless older person at risk of harm. This includes physical, sexual, and emotional abuse. Neglecting or deserting an older person you are responsible for? Taking or misusing an elderly person’s money or property Elder abuse can happen within the family. It can also happen in settings such as hospitals or nursing homes or in the community. The number of Elder Abuse Cases was decreasing from 2005 to September 2007. In 2005, the Elder Abuse Cases Number of cases was over 520. There was a slight decrease in 2006. From Jan to Sep 2007, the total number of Elder Abuse cases had dropped down to less than 480.
Which District in Hong Kong Did Elder Abuse Happen Most Seriously?
Statistics of Victim’s Residential District, 2005 to 007(Jan to Sep) 2005 Unknown Tuen Mun Kwai Tsing Tsuen Wan North Yuen Long Tai Po Sha Tin Sai Kung Kwun Tong Wong Tai Sin Sham Shui Po Kowloon City Southern Yau Tsim Mong Eastern Wan Chai Islands 2006 Central / Western Number of case 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2007 (Jan to Sep) District Chart 18: Statistics of Victim’s Residential District, 2005 to 2007(Jan to Sep)
It has about 79 cases. In 2006, Kwun Tong District is still the most serious district where the elder abuse happens. From January to September in 2007, Kwai Tsing District becomes the most serious district. Government subvention to Services for the Elderly, 20052006 to 2007-2008 3300 3250 3200 $Million 3150 3100 Government Subvention ($milion) 3050 3000 2950 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 Year. The amount spent by the government on elderly care services was increasing from 2005 to 2008. In 2005-2006, the amount spent on elderly care services was 3075. 3 million. However, it has increased to 3267. 4 million in 2007-2008. 4: The Elderly-continue to increase in the future?
Chart 20: Projected mid-year population of old people, 2007-2036 30 25 20 Percentage 15 10 5 0 2010 mean that the proportion of the elderly will increase in the future. Do u know-how will be the shape of projected mid-year population of old people curve look like? Projected mid-year Population of Old people, 2007-2036 2007 From the previous chapter, we can know that population aging is happening in Hong Kong. This Year From chart 20, we can see that the projected mid-year population of old people curve is upward-sloping. This means that the proportion of old people in Hong Kong is expected to increase in the future. According to Chart 20, the percentage of old people in Hong Kong is expected to increase from 12. 4% in 2007 to 26. % in 2036. Population aging will bring so many problems to society. As a result, Hong Kong will suffer from the problem of population aging in the future. What should be done by the government to relieve the problem of population aging?
Ways to Relieve the Population Ageing
Population aging cause many problems in society. Although it is inevitable, the government should take action to relieve it. What should be done by the government to relieve the problems of population aging? In fact, there are many ways that can do it. The following are some of the ways: Increasing birth rate: Encouraging local citizen to give birth to children: The government can provide some grants or subsidies to parents to encourage them to give birth to children, as some parents may be attracted by the grants and subsidies, the birth rate can be increased by this measure. As a result, there will be a rise in the fraction of the population composed of children and the problem of population aging can be relieved. Encouraging people from mainland give birth to their children in Hong Kong: The government can also encourage those people from the mainland to give birth to children in Hong Kong.
It can increase the fraction of the population composed of children and the problem of population aging can be relieved too. Carry out the MPF Scheme: Nowadays, the MPF scheme is carrying out in Hong Kong. This scheme can ensure that the elderly will have enough capital to support their life. As a result, the elderly can support their life and need not to dependent on the Comprehensive Social Security Scheme. This can relieve the burden on the CSSA scheme. Allowing employers to employ labor from the mainland: The government can allow employers to employ workers from the mainland.
As employers can employ young workers from the mainland, the productivity of the labor force will not decrease as the workers are mainly comprised of young people.
Conclusion
Population aging has become a worldwide phenomenon and Hong Kong is no exception that the problem of the ageing population can cause many negative effects to society. As a result, we should take the problem of the aging population seriously. Population aging will cause the following problems: Economic effects: Population aging will reduce the productivity of labor in Hong Kong.
As the proportion of elderly in the labor force increase, it will lower the average productivity of labor. Thus, it will lower the quality of Hong Kong labor. It is harmful to Hong Kong’s economy. Effects on Public Medical services: Population aging will increase the burden on medical services in Hong Kong. As the elderly usually have more health problems, if there is an increase in the number of elderly, the demand for public medical services will also increase. Effects on Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme (CSSA): Population aging will increase the number of elderly in Hong Kong.
It will increase the burden on CSSA as many of the elderly are poor. As population aging cause so many negative effects on society, the government should take action to relieve the problem. There are many ways that can help to relieve the problem of population aging. For example, the government can increase the birth rate by encouraging Hong Kong people to give birth to children. Also, the government can allow workers from the mainland to work in Hong Kong, so the productivity of the labor force in Hong Kong will not be decreased.
References
- 1996 Population By-Census: Summary Results
- 2006 Population By-Census: Summary Results
- 2001 Population Census Thematic Report – Old Persons
- 2006 Population By-Census Thematic Report – Old Persons
- 2006 Population By-Census: Basic Tables for District Council Districts Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics
- 7/2007: Feature Article Statistics on Comprehensive Social Security Assistance Scheme, 1996 to 2006
- Hong Kong Annual Digest of Statistics 2007
- Hospital Authority Annual Report (From 2003 -2004 to 2006-2007)
- Hong Kong Monthly Digest Report 12/2007
- Hong Kong Labour force Projections for 2007 to 2026
- Projected Population and Hong Kong Life Tables – Statistical Tables by Census and Statistics Department Social Welfare Department
