This week we were introduced to the underlying basis of human reasoning and the effects of processing the information. An intelligence analyst must produce accurate and reliable information because it keeps possible threats from stemming. To produce accurate and reliable information, one must consider perceptions and biases because it not only influences decisions, but it also affects the way we think. Intelligence is a process. “To create intelligence requires transformations resulting from an intellectual endeavor that sorts the “significant from [the] insignificant, assessing them severally and jointly, and arriving at a conclusion by the exercise of judgment: part induction, part deduction,” and part abduction” (Moore 2007, 3).
Critical thinking is self-corrective thinking. It allows better control of your personal learning, while consideration for others point of view. In the intelligence community it is important to ensure that critical thinking is not just applied but it becomes rooted within one’s daily activities. According to Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis, “Critical thinking provides such a framework and goes further, positively influencing the entire intelligence analysis process” (Moore 2007, 1).
In A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis, analytic techniques are discussed. The techniques are as follows: diagnostic, contrarian, and imaginative thinking. “…Diagnostic techniques are primarily aimed at making analytic arguments, assumptions, or intelligence gaps more transparent; contrarian techniques explicitly challenge current thinking; and imaginative thinking techniques aim at developing new insights, different perspectives and/or develop alternative outcomes” (U.S. Government 2009, 5).
These techniques can be impacted by perceptions and biases. An example of how perceptions and biases impact diagnostic techniques is the 2002 DC Sniper Case. If a key assumptions check, was conducted within the early stages, this would have ensured that the assessment did not rely on flawed premises. Law enforcement quickly jumped to multiple conclusions, which hindered progress in identifying the identity of the sniper (U. S. Government 2009, 8).
Within contrarian techniques, high-impact/low-probability analysis is discussed. The September 11 attacks is an example of how perceptions and biases can lead to undesirable results. In 2001, the President’s Daily Brief, highlighted an analysis on 9/11, stating that it was a “…highly unlikely scenarios that would have a very high impact” (U.S. Government 2009, 23). Although, analyst concluded that the probability was low, the devastating actions of this attack, displays that a low-probability can easily turn into a high-impact. Perceptions and biases played a major role in the IC because the information was present and clear, but challenges were not applied.
Brainstorming, outside-in thinking, red team analysis, and alternative futures analysis are types of imaginative thinking techniques. Like the techniques mentioned above, these techniques are also prone to perceptions and biases and can also have a major impact. Although, the techniques mentioned during this week’s lesson are beneficial because the human mind undergoes constant perceptions and biases, there will be always room for error. For this reason, it is important to seek senior guidance and review of products.
