Main article: Long March (Pakistan)
In mid-January, Sufi cleric Dr Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri led a Long March from Lahore to Islamabad, which is over 350 km, demanding electoral reforms, the quick dissolution of the National Assembly and a precise date for the election. The march attracted about 60,000 individuals from across Pakistan and ended peacefully. However, this appeared to have little impact on the government who continued on as per normal, and were seemingly following their plan as to when to announce elections. In the run up to the elections, a US Congressional report provided a brief overview of the current Pakistani government between 2008 to 2013.
The annual report included the input of 16 US intelligence agencies, including the CIA. The report pointed out the policies and performance of the current government during their five-year tenure. The report warned that “Economically, trouble looms. Pakistan, with its small tax base, poor system of tax collection, and reliance on foreign aid, faces no real prospects for sustainable economic growth. The government has been unwilling to address economic problems that continue to constrain economic growth. The government has made no real effort to persuade its disparate coalition members to accept much-needed policy and tax reforms, because members are simply focused on retaining their seats in the upcoming elections.”[14] Process
Main article: Elections in Pakistan
With assistance from the Asian office of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, the Election Commission of Pakistan announced the printing of computerized electoral rolls, the first of its kind database which resulted in the elimination of 35 million bogus voters off the list.[15] On 24 January 2013, the Election Commission of Pakistan approved electoral reforms ahead of the upcoming general elections. According to the approved reforms, the entire government machinery would come under the authority of the Election Commission once the election schedule is announced. Another clause in the reforms also empowers the Election Commission with administrative authority over the announcement of the election schedule. Moreover, the Election Commission would be allowed to make transfers and postings of high-ranking officials including Inspector Generals, secretaries and chief secretaries. The motive behind these reforms is to ensure transparency of the upcoming general elections, which the Chief Election Commissioner had termed crucial.[16]
Schedule
•August 1, 2012: The Election Commission of Pakistan announces 2012 general elections would be held on the basis of same old constituencies.[17] •December, 2012: Supreme Court of Pakistan orders delimitation of constituencies and door-to-door verification of voters with the help of Pakistan Army in Karachi.[citation needed] •January 17, 2013: Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) starts door-to-door verification of voters list.[18] •February 3, 2013: President Asif Ali Zardari likely to announce the date for the general elections in the country, between March 8 and 14, 2013.[19] •March 31, 2013: Last date to submit the candidates’ papers.
Caretaker government
According to the law the caretaker government operates in the interim period between the normal dissolution of parliament for the purpose of holding an election and the formation of a new government after the election results are known. Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf had written a letter to leader of the Opposition leader in the National Assembly Chaudry Nisar Ali Khan, requesting him to propose names of persons for appointment as caretaker Prime Minister. Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz, Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI) and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam – Fazl (JUI-F) had agreed on the name of Justice (R) Nasir Aslam Zahid as the Acting Prime Minister until the elections take place.[20] However the government and opposition failed to reach consensus and the matter was forwarded to a parliamentary committee, comprising four members from the opposition and the government.[21] On 24 March 2013, the Election Commission appointed former judge and politician Mir Hazar Khan Khoso for the post of caretaker Prime Minister.[22] Registered voters
Following is the final list of registered voters in each district of Pakistan who are eligible to cast their vote.[23] •The total number of registered voters for the election are 86,194,802. •The province of Punjab has the highest number of registered voters. •In cities, five districts of Karachi which form the city of Karachi has a total of 7,171,237 registered voters; more than total voters of the province of Balochistan and more than any other city or district in Pakistan. •In Balochistan, due to sparse population, some NA seats are shared by two / three districts. [show]Province
DistrictNo. of VotersSeat No
Campaign
Some parties began campaigning in Pakistan as early as March 27, six weeks ahead of the May 11 election date.[24] Power shortages were another issue in the election campaign.[25] Bilawal Zardari The Pakistan Peoples Party announced that Bilawal Zardari would run as their candidate for the next Prime Minister, despite the fact that Bilawal Zardari is still too young to become Prime Minister. The Pakistani constitution states that a person must be 25 years old to become Prime Minister, an age Bilawal Zardari will not become until September 2013.[26] On 5 May, it was revealed that that Bilawal Zardari had left Pakistan for Dubai and would not be present at all on election day. He unexpectedly left the country and would not be addressing any party rallies or meetings. His party also announced that he will not return until after the elections are over.[27]
Imran Khan
On 20 March, Imran Khan conducted an intra-party election for leadership of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party. Imran Khan was elected unopposed as no other candidate contested for the top post. Speaking to media representatives after submitting his nomination papers, Khan informed the media that no-one from his party will be eligible to hold the post of the party chairman for more than two terms. Khan has been advocating that the intra-party elections will ultimately finish off the ‘dynasty-type, family limited companies politics’ from the country.[28] During a campaign rally in Lahore, Khan fell 14 feet as he was stepping off an improvised forklift. He was seen to be bleeding and unconscious with a gash on his head. He was then taken to Shaukat Khanum Memorial Hospital where Khan was treated for two fractures to his spinal column.[29]
Nawaz Sharif
The winner, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, was seeking a historic third term win on behalf of his party, the Pakistan Muslim League (N).[30] The PML(N) campaign was led by Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif. Providing reliable electrical service was one of his principle themes.[31] On 5 June 2013, Pakistan’s parliament elected Sharif as prime minister for a third time. He received 244 votes in the 342-seat parliament.[32] Pervez Musharraf
On 24 March, former President Pervez Musharraf returned from self-imposed exile to run in the election despite threats from the Pakistani Taliban on his life,[33] similar to the return of Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated shortly after returning. Musharraf’s candidature was rejected from his home town of Karachi on the grounds that he violated the constitution of Pakistan and that he had sacked senior judges during his presidency. Electoral returning officer Ikramur Rehman upheld the objections by his rivals. A PML (Q) official, Afzal Agha, said “this is a biased decision.” He was also rejected from the Punjabi town of Kasur. However he was later approved in the Khyber-Pakthunwa town of Chitral.[34] The Supreme Court ordered him to appear over charges of treason and barred him from leaving the country on 8 April.[35]
On 16 April, an appeal for his approval from Chitral decided by a court in the provincial capital of Peshawar in which he was barred on the grounds that he violated the constitution by imposing emergency rule in 2007. His lawyer said that he would appeal to the Supreme Court.[36] He was also ordered to be kept under house arrest for two weeks. On 23 April, He appeared at a Rawalpindi court under tight security on charges relating to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.[37] On 25 April, he was formally arrested for the same charge.[38] The Peshawar High Court then banned him for life from taking part in politics activities. Chief Justice Dost Mohammad Khan said: “The former dictator [Musharraf] had ordered senior judges and their families be put under house arrest and twice abrogated the country’s constitution.”[39] In reaction to the ban, a party spokeswoman for the All Pakistan Muslim League said that it would boycott the election.[40] He was granted US$20,000 bail on 20 May.[41]
Violence
Pre-election violence
On 28 April, the Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for two bombings at the offices of independent candidates. In Kohat, a bombing at Noor Akbar Khan’s offices killed six and critically wounded others. In the suburbs of Peshawar, a bomb at Nasir Khan Afridi’s office killed three people.[42] The next day, at least eight people, including the son of Afghani cleric Qazi Amin Waqad, were killed and 45 others were wounded in a suicide attack in Peshawar. The bomb had targeted Sahibzada Anees, a senior city administrator, who had just passed the area. Hilal was a part of the Afghan Hich Peace Council and was organising a meeting of Afghan and Pakistani religious scholars to oppose militancy.[43] The same day, at a Karachi press conference the leaders of the PPP, MQM and Awami National Party said that the attacks would not stop then from participating in the election. ANP Secretary General Bashir Jan said that his party had previously made sacrifices in relations to the 2012 assassination of Bashir Bilour, the former party leader.
His statement followed an explosion that wounded three children near the election office of Mohammad Ahmed Khan, the ANP candidate from Charsadda in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.[44] On 2 May, a bomb exploded outside the MQM headquarters in which seven people were injured.[45] On 4 May, at least three people were killed and 34 others were wounded when two bombs targeted the election office of the MQM in the Azeezabad area of Karachi.[46] In a rally in Kurram Valley, at least 15 people were dead and over 50 injured at a Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam rally for candidates Munir Orakzai and Ain u Dun Shakir. The rally was part of the faction led by Fazal-ur-Rehman. The latter was slightly wounded.[47] Afghan-Pakistan border tensions also flared.[48] On 9 May, the son of former Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani, Ali Haider Gilani, was abducted following a gunfight at a rally in Multan that killed his personal secretary.[49] Election day violence
Main article: 2013 Pakistan election day bombings Scattered gun and bomb attacks marred an otherwise celebratory day in a nation mired in economic crisis and locked in a fight with a virulent native Taliban insurgency. By the time polls closed in the evening, at least 20 people had died in attacks, the most serious targeting a pro-U.S. political party in the southern port city of Karachi. The violence, which included blasts outside a political office in Karachi that left 10 dead, capped a bloody election season. More than 130 people have been killed in bombings and shootings over the campaign, prompting some to call this one of the deadliest votes in the country’s history.[50] Several bombs were reportedly defused before voting began on Saturday morning, according to Al Jazeera. No one has so far taken the responsibility for the attacks, except for the initial two blasts in the coastal city of Karachi, claimed by Pakistani Taliban.[51] Opinion polls
“”Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to play important role in next government.”” —Najam Sethi, 2013
Various polls have been conducted by different organizations, all of which show inconsistencies and different results. In March 2013, a survey by Heinrich Böll Foundation showed that 29 per cent of the people surveyed would support the Pakistan Peoples Party, the highest nummain opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Another 20 per cent supported the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led by former cricketer Imran Khan.[52] According to a survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan and PILDAT the Pakistan Muslim League (N) tops the list on voting intention score in Punjab, followed by the PTI and the PPP respectively. The February 2013 political forecast is based on a nationwide poll of approximately 9660 voters in 300 villages and urban localities.
The voting intention score of PML-N stands at 63% in North and Central Punjab, 69% in Western Punjab and 49% in Southern Punjab, shows the survey. According to the consolidated findings of two nationwide polls on voting intentions, conducted by IRI and Gallup Pakistan respectively during past three months, the front runner in Pakistan’s elections scheduled in mid-2013 is the PML-N. The PTI, according to the survey, is making deep inroads in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa where it has surpassed every other player by a 30 per cent score.[53] “”Pakistan Peoples Party to emerge victorious on basis of performance.”” —Qamar Zaman Kaira, 2013
In January 2013, an online poll conducted by Public Judgement showed that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf would win 66.1% of the total seats with PML-N coming in second place with 29.3% of seats. This would translate as PTI winning an outright majority of 225 seats in parliament. The online poll took place over 16 days and a total of 17,013 people participated in the poll.[54] PTI Chairman Imran Khan acknowledges sharp slide in his party’s popularity but attributes it to the party’s preoccupation with a gigantic task of intra-party elections. It took about 10 months during which the PTI almost suspended its activities. Imran is confident that the PTI will rebound soon for which a series of rallies has been planned beginning with Peshawar on March 10 on conclusion of elections for the Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (KP). On March 23, a massive rally is planned in Lahore which will also be attended by about 80,000 elected members at union council level across the country.
Senior Pakistani Political analyst Najam Sethi said, Nawaz Sharif held public meetings and rallies in every nook and corner of the country while Shahbaz Sharif completed development projects in Punjab which attracted politicians from the other parties. Sethi said that the three percent raise in the popularity graph of the Pakistan People’s Party was made possible due to Asif Ali Zardari’s efforts who gathered many such politicians as used to oppose him. He said the popularity of both the parties increased due to the revival of the traditional politics and the same was the cause of decrease in popularity of unorthodox politicians like Imran Khan. However, Imran Khan’s next public meetings would help him a lot, Sethi predicted, saying that the PTI leader’s graph would go up after public rallies in Lahore and Peshawar and the party would play an important role in formation of the next government.[55] Support based on generation gap
The survey’s findings indicate that the PTI’s support is derived from all age groups – 22.9 per cent of those between 18 to 35 years, 18.6 per cent of those between 36 to 50 years, 18.4 per cent of those between 51 to 70 years and 7.7 of those above 70 years support the PTI, dispelling the notion that its vote bank is rooted in the younger generation. The highest proportion of those aged between 36 to 50 years (32.5 per cent) indicate a preference for the PPP. Similarly, 46.2 per cent of those aged over 70 expressed a preference for the PML(N). Compared with respondents’ voting histories, the PML(N)’s vote bank appears to have remained stagnant while the PPP’s seems to have declined significantly. It appears that the PTI has a stronger urban base, while a higher proportion of rural respondents indicated that they would vote for either the PPP or the PML(N) in the upcoming elections.[56] Voting trends by ethnicity
Predictably, the highest level of support for the ruling Pakistan Peoples
Party was pledged by Sindhis, 55 per cent of whom said they would vote for the PPP in the upcoming elections. This was followed by Seraiki-speakers at 46 per cent. Forty-four per cent of Hindko-speakers said they intend to vote for the Pakistan Muslim League (N), closely followed by Punjabi people at 43 per cent. The same proportion of Hindko-speakers – 44 per cent – also expressed an intention to vote for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, indicating a close contest between the two parties (PMLN and PTI) within that particular demographic. It is worth noting that while 34 per cent of Pakhtuns stated that they would vote for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, only 11 per cent expressed support for the Awami National Party (ANP). 47 per cent of Balochis said that they would vote for the Balochistan National Party.[56] The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) primarily derived its support base from the Urdu-speaking Muhajir community in Karachi. Support based on household income
On average, approximately a third of those earning up to 30,000 rupees each month indicated a preference for the Pakistan Peoples Party whereas, among those earning more than 30,000 rupees, support for the party dropped to 10.8 percent. This is in keeping with the party’s traditional pro-poor image. No such trend could be determined for the Pakistan Muslim League (N), whose level of support remained similar across all income levels. Those earning in excess of 250,000 rupees each month (the highest identified income bracket in the survey) expressed the maximum intention to vote for either the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) or the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, at 33 per cent each. While this figure may appear anomalistic in the MQM’s case – support for the party within the second highest income bracket (those earning between 100,000 and 250,000 rupees each month) was only four per cent – it was possible to identify a rough direct trend between level of income and support for the PTI. In general, it appeared that support for smaller parties declined with increasing levels of income.[56] International monitor recommendations
The National Democratic Institution have stated the elections will be a “historical transition.” An NDI assessment mission — consisting of Canada’s former prime minister Joe Clark, former Indonesian House of Representatives member Nursanita Nasution, Chatham House senior fellow Xenia Dormandy and NDI Asia programmes director Peter Manikas — released its findings at a press briefing in Islamabad after its observation of Pakistan’s political framework. The mission visited Pakistan from December 16 to December 21 and met with election authorities, government officials, party leaders, media and citizen monitoring groups. Joe Clark commended the cooperation of all parties, especially in adopting measures to bring the Federally Administered Tribal Areas under the political umbrella.
Clark stated that the 18th Amendment to the constitution reflects the parliament’s integrity and commitment towards a fair democratic handover. Nursanita Nasution highlighted the need to address the rights of women in the polling process so that “fear and intimidation in high-risk areas such as Baluchistan, FATA, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Karachi” would not strip women of the opportunity to vote. Xenia Dormandy suggested “improving accessibility and adjusting locations” of women polling stations closer to those for men so that they could travel with the men in their families to vote. Sandra Houston, Regional Director of NDI, stated “We are impressed with the cooperation of all the stakeholders in assuring a smooth transition,” sharing that voters have been registered with Computerised National Identity Cards and biometrics including photographs where possible.[57] European Union
The European Union offered to send its observers to Pakistan’s elections, in a bid to ensure a “peaceful, credible” vote that will be “acceptable” to all. “The EU looks forward to upcoming elections that are peaceful, credible, transparent, inclusive and acceptable to the Pakistani people,” EU foreign ministers said in a statement released after talks. The 27-nation bloc “is ready to assist by deploying an election observation mission, as a tangible sign of our support for the democratic process,” the statement added. The ministers also said they looked forward to re-energizing ties with the next government and hoped quick contacts could lead to a third EU-Pakistan summit.[58] Pakistan responded by saying it will welcome a European Union election observation mission during the forthcoming general elections.
“Yes, we will welcome the observation mission”, foreign secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani said.[59] A 110-member team from the European Union will observe Pakistan’s elections. The European Union High Representative and Vice President of the European Commission, Ms. Catherine Ashton, has decided to authorize a European Union Election Observation Mission (EOM) to observe the elections. A member of the European Parliament will lead the 2013 EU EOM as its Chief Observer. The EU EOM team will include observers, experts, election analysts, political analysts, legal analysts, human rights analysts, media analysts and others. On the basis of special agreements with the EU, observers from Norway, Switzerland and Canada are also part of the EOM. Some members will be deployed well in advance of election day, while others will be deployed at least ten days prior to the election day. The observers will assess aspects of the election process, nomination of candidates, election campaign, counting, tabulation, announcement of official results and complaints’ procedures, and will cover pre-election preparations, election-day itself and the post-electoral period. The observers will follow the political campaign and hold regular meetings with representatives of election management bodies, political parties, candidates and civil society groups.[60]
United States
The US Ambassador to Pakistan Richard Olsen stated that the United States applauds democratic tendencies in Pakistan, expressing hopes that free and fair general elections would lead to peaceful transfer of authority from one civilian government to successor dispensation. Completion of the current term by a democratically elected government will be a milestone in Pakistan’s history.[61] A U.S. delegation consisting of Senator Carl Levin, US Ambassador to Pakistan Richard Olsen and Armed Services Committee Senator Jack Reed visited Pakistan on 8 January for talks with Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf. The delegation stated that not only the U.S., but the world would observe the general election with great interest.[62] The Centre for American Progress published a report called “Previewing Pakistan’s 2013 Elections” whose author, Colin Cookman, writes that the United States should work with, and not attempt to control Pakistan’s internal political processes.
The report also warns that whoever wins the elections should try to resolve the problems the country faces or be prepared to face accountability. Cookman states that “only Pakistanis themselves are capable of establishing a more stable, democratic system capable of balancing diverse interest groups and effectively addressing the country’s challenges.” It encourages the US to make efforts to support Pakistan’s democratic evolution and the success of its upcoming elections. Such efforts should include a public commitment to neutrality and respect for the electoral processes, coupled with support for an international observation mission. It also urges US diplomatic and military officials to continue to engage with a broad array of Pakistani civilian leaders and military officials, while making it clear that the United States “does not favour any specific electoral outcome and strongly opposes any disruption of the constitutional process or intervention during the caretaker period.”[63]
US officials have denied the general perception in Pakistan that the US government wants to influence the electoral process in Pakistan to bring in a friendly government. US Secretary of State John Kerry skipped a planned visit to Pakistan to avoid accusations of meddling in the May 11 elections. Spokesperson Victoria Nuland stated that the message the United States wants to send out during the election season is “we have no favourites among Pakistani politicians and we are looking forward to work with whoever is elected on May 11.” Secretary Kerry’s decision to skip Pakistan during his South Asia visit is an indication of Washington’s eagerness to maintain neutrality during the elections.[64] Results
A total of 86.19 million residents were registered to vote.[65] Voter turnout was 55.02%, the highest since 1970 and 1977.[citation needed] The Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz emerged with a landslide victory, winning four times as many seats as any other party. However, it fell short of an absolute majority in the National Assembly. The PPP emerged as the 2nd largest party in terms of seats and 3rd largest party in terms of popular vote whereas PTI emerged as the 2nd largest party in terms of popular vote and 3rd largest party in terms of seats.
