I write to Mr. President today to inform you about global security- and technology-related dangers that demand maximum attention and careful choices. As you know, science has perpetually been a critical component of military success, and as improvements in science occur, we must accordingly advance our military technology. Our most important priority in this regard is securing our nation from cyber threats and operations posed by China, Russia, and North Korea. We must combat these challenges by utilizing “left of launch,” intensified cyberattacks, and other sabotage methods that would impede missile launches before they occur. We also must work with our allies and trading partners to coerce Beijing to open up the Chinese market to foreign companies (Sanger & Broad). In terms of general military technology, it is imperative that we anticipate and respond to a shift from traditional “boots on the ground” tactics and the use of piloted vehicles to a world in which electronic attacks and the use of autonomous weapons (i.e., robots and drones) are ascendant. Autonomous weapons systems not only produce notable strategic and tactical advantages on the battlefield; they also can be promoted as a more ethical mode of combat because their use reduces human combatants and therefore human casualties. Fears of drone proliferation are overblown, and the production of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology is a principal source of income in an expanding international market as well as a key factor in advancing the strategic goals of counterterrorism in the United States. In sum, although the high-tech military of the future will be expensive, it is critical that we approach new threats with an enhanced security strategy based upon our technological dominance, and that we utilize our advanced technology to establish more active defenses and eliminate dangers before they can threaten our homeland.
How Science is Changing Armed Conflict:
Autonomous weapons systems represent some of the most eloquent scientific progress of the modern warfare era. These systems’ main purpose is to act as a force multiplier, as fewer troops are required for any given mission, and the effectiveness of each combatant is significantly increased (Etzioni, 72). This method of warfare allows combatants to infiltrate areas that were formerly unreachable, and is a virtuous solution because the amount of casualties will be greatly reduced due the removal of human soldiers from the battlefield.
Unmanned devices have raised social, political, and economic issues, but nevertheless continue to be studied and developed. UAVs, colloquially referred to as drones, have the ability of liquidating the enemy who is located a significant distance from where the drone’s operator is located. Due to this feature, drones have become the central force to counter acts of terrorism. Military experts are contemplating the use of longer-range drones that hold the potential of carrying out nuclear assignments. The promise of these longer-range armed drones and the vast strike options they offer is incredibly tempting, and make particular sense for the United States military considering its goal of projecting power into the distant Western Pacific (Bitzinger & Leah, 5). UAVs in general are rapidly gaining currency and growing in use because they present a solution to a major problem: We can take out our enemies without risking the lives of our own combatants.
Cyber technology has acquired prominence as well. Russian cyber operations against the United States aim not only to gather intelligence but also to develop offensive capabilities against future targets. Over time, Russian hackers have intentionally targeted the White House as well as the Pentagon and the State Department, and each attempt has gleaned information and attracted attention from United States officials. Russian cybercriminals have developed extremely high-level and creative stratagems (for example, disguising their electronic command and control messages), and through this Russian agents have been able to intercept messages with a very low probability that network defenders will detect the infiltration. Hackers have gone well beyond simply gathering information, however. They have leaked emails such as in 2016 from Democratic Party officials, and they have stolen and altered files to create false impressions. Russia is certainly not alone in promoting this criminal activity. To take just one additional example, China has employed means of censorship and surveillance among its citizens for similar purposes. In addition to this, China has created a structure of laws, regulations, and standards to strengthen cybersecurity and protect classified information in governmental and private systems (Segal). Cyber technology is ascendant and now constitutes a dominant method of interference and disruption, and this raises weighty concerns for our security.
The US has furthermore utilized electronic strikes, and since 2014 these strikes and cyberattacks have intensified. Certain of these electronic sabotage methods, known as “left of launch,” are intended to interfere with missile launches before they occur, and new approaches have been developed, including blowing up the missiles in flight at a time when they are highly visible and slow-moving.
Military-Technological Breakthroughs of the Future:
A growing number of drones are becoming armed and in the near future they will be capable of inflicting nuclear damage. The United States is in the process of finalizing a strategic Long-Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B), an unmanned program. A myriad of missions carried out by the United States do not require a crew, and a drone version of the LRS-B could execute tasks including surveillance, intelligence, and reconnaissance, as well as electronic attack, without needing any human assistance whatsoever. Although the United States has attempted to hinder the proliferation of this technology, the development of these drones has already begun to spread. There have been reports that Russia is attempting to build nuclear-armed drone submarines, and they may even have their own nuclear bomber within the next 20 years. We must understand that this technology will spread to other nations across the globe, and we need to prepare to defend against these nuclear-armed drones.
China has been deploying a series of interrelated missile, guidance, sensor, and other technologies that are intended to impede freedom of navigation and movement for other world powers in the waters off of China’s coast. These freedom-of-navigation operations have seriously damaged the strategic mutual trust between the Chinese and the United States. Due to this erosion of trust, China is expanding its military reach and restricting access to the South China Sea (Cheney-Peters). It is anticipated that the Chinese “A2/AD” (anti-access, area denial) strategy will hold strong and successfully exclude the United States from a large portion of the Western Pacific that it has once controlled (Biddle & Oelrich). It is vital that we keep a close eye on China, as it is possible that China will extend a zone of exclusivity up to 3,000 kilometers from their country. This potential reach of China’s A2/AD strategy poses several threats to our security policy, and we must maintain our focus on China’s next move.
The Costs and Benefits of Different Strategic Priorities:
At this time, I believe the pros heavily outweigh the cons on the question of whether we should aggressively pursue the continued development of autonomous weapon systems. An army of military robots will lead to long-term savings, as the cost per year for a soldier in Afghanistan is almost four times as much as a small robot armed with weapons. This will help address the fear of future military-related budgetary problems. Robots are also significantly better equipped for difficult missions than humans, as they can operate at a quicker pace, will not experience fatigue and physiological constraints, and can continue to lethally strike even when communication links have been severed. While robots may lack the functionality necessary for accurately striking small targets and the inherent human advantage of situational awareness, and recognizing the risk that robots could cause high collateral damage, autonomous weapons systems could be used in situations where no civilians are present, such as desert theaters. I believe that the fear of collateral civilian damage is overblown. This is because autonomous weapons systems would be required to comply with the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC), and because of this these robots will be able to differentiate between combatants and noncombatants.
The drone discourse has raised public objections as well as legal and moral issues. However, the considerable advancements in science, and specifically drone technology, can lead to new success rates on the battlefield. Towards the end of the Obama administration, it was estimated that drones avoided civilian casualties 86 percent of the time (Cronin). As kill rates have slowly increased, the 14 percent of instances when drones result in civilian casualties becomes a reduced issue. New technology, such as longer-range drones, are incredibly accurate and are critical when it comes to projecting power into the far Western Pacific, including the South China Sea.
Drone proliferation is another legitimate concern that will likely continue to grow. Many believe that in the long run, outrage over drone strikes may encourage the spread of terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda (Cronin). Even though this may be true, drones allow the United States to carry out missions in regions where our military presence is weak but national security interests are potent. Drones have eliminated numerous powerful terrorists. Their collateral damage must be viewed within the larger context of our important strategic security objectives. Viewed in this context, I believe that the risk of such collateral damage is worth the benefits provided by the implementation of drone capabilities.
Recommendations for Enhancing U.S. Security:
To ensure that the United States will continue remain an influential and secure nation on the global stage, it is imperative that we focus our attention on enhancing cyber technology as well as defending against cyber attacks, and that we implement defense mechanisms in contentious regions of the world.
You are no doubt familiar with the increased and recurring Russian cyber operations. We must take the necessary steps of defense, detection, and deterrence against these attacks. This strategy will enable policymakers in our country to have a better likelihood of identifying and blocking Russian intrusions on the spot. In order to minimize the opportunities for intrusion, we must prioritize the deployment of audited code and the application of security updates to our systems. We must also decontaminate our networks. Although this will be a resource-intensive and relatively expensive process, it is essential to identify intrusions that have already happened and to eradicate them. The Department of Justice has brought charges against and implemented restrictions on Chinese and Iranian cyber operators, and if we can do the same against Russian hackers (such as imposing restrictions on travel, making arrests, and publicly shaming this kind of activity), we will demonstrate that we have the means of identifying bad actors and inflicting punishment on them.
China is another arena the demands our focus. President Xi Jinping’s efforts to transform China into a cyber superpower with an impermeable defense system mirrors his country’s efforts to close or restrict its markets to foreign entry. It is pivotal that we work with our allies as well as trading partners and put pressure on China to open their market to foreign companies (Segal). We also must address the threat to our nation presented by China’s implementation of A2/AD in the South China Sea. At first blush, AirSea Battle (ASB) appears to be an attractive solution, as it combines passive defenses against Chinese missile attacks with an emphasis on offensive action to destroy or disable the forces that China would use to establish A2/AD. However, there are many limitations to ASB, ranging from its uncertain ability to strike mobile targets from afar to its limited radar capabilities. ASB is also extremely expensive, and although China’s A2/AD implementation is a significant threat to our country’s interests in the Western Pacific region, that threat cannot be prevented through ASB at a sustainable cost. Therefore, instead of initiating ASB, we ought to establish our own A2/AD zone and encourage our allies to do the same. Implementation of this strategy also requires increased cyber security, as we do not want foreign devices to infiltrate the systems that support our A2/AD zone.
It is clear that the first step we must take is to enhance our nation’s security through our cyber defense systems. We need to exploit our enemies and target areas of unique vulnerability, as well as retaliate with consequences as we identify the perpetrators. It is important to build up our defensive technology, and only after our cyber security and defense system is secured can we begin to introduce UAVs and autonomous weapon systems, as robots and unmanned systems are the future means of combat.
