Essay on the Coming Anarchy
The Coming Anarchy by Robert Kaplan presents a pessimistic and dire view of world history in the 21st century after the Cold War. The book identifies various problems such as overpopulation, crime, diseases, cultural and religious tribalism, criminality and scarcity due to environmental degradation. These issues are situated in a context of a post-Soviet world order which could lead to an anarchic global period.
Expounding on the works of several political thinkers, the author presents his political visions for the 21st century. He argues that democracy and capitalism have failed to benefit most of the world’s population. To illustrate his point, he refers to the criminal turmoil in West Africa. The author believes that issues such as disease, overpopulation, unprovoked crime, scarcity of resources, refugee migrations, erosion of nation-states and international borders, and the empowerment of private armies, security firms and international drug cartels in West Africa best represent global struggles with these challenges.
Supporting Van Creveld’s belief in the end of the era of nation-states, he cites Sierra Leone as a microcosm of the diminishing power of central governments throughout West Africa and most underdeveloped countries. He even cautions that multi-ethnic states like the United States would not survive in their current form. However, he indicates that homogeneous ones like Japan and Germany stand to have better chances.
The author believes that the degraded state of the environment is the primary national security issue in the early 21st century. He suggests that scarcity of resources could exacerbate racial and cultural conflicts. Additionally, he predicts a shift from conventional large-scale warfare to tribal conflicts, which may occur due to weakened or dissolved states. This could lead to communal survival” wars that are subnational in nature.
The article discusses the role of various factors in our 21st century world, as presented in Worlds Together, Worlds Apart: A History of the Modern World. These factors include ethnic or tribal clashes and economic difficulties in Africa, international migrations, inequitable distribution of goods and wealth, overpopulation, weakened family ties, natural resources (and to a limited extent environment), weakened influence of nation-states and ethnic or religious violence.
In a way, both accounts discuss the new global order that emerged after the end of the Cold War, accompanied by varying degrees of disorder. The textbook explains how the collapse of the three-world system created new links for global integration and led to political and economic challenges for former Soviet-bloc states. On the other hand, The Coming Anarchy envisions how the end of the Cold War will trigger a cruel process of natural selection among existing states.
Both sources agree that African countries generally struggle with poor economies, serious local and ethnic rivalries, and gross inequalities. However, Anarchy presents a more critical picture of the African continent as being near collapse, while Worlds Together includes the continent’s colonial history.
While both accounts discuss a new global order, Anarchy appears to have overlooked or chosen not to discuss the communication and technology aspects of globalization. Kaplan also fails to describe or anticipate the globalization of commerce and manufacturing. However, both portray the continuing gap between the rich and poor.
The Coming Anarchy specifies international migrations as an important factor in defining a volatile new era when territorial maps or boundaries are ever-changing, indicating a chaotic global political order. Worlds Together discusses migration prompted by economic goals from the viewpoint of global integration.
Chapter 12 of Worlds Together discusses the significance of population and profiles global demography. Anarchy, on the other hand, emphasizes the role of overpopulation in exacerbating his predicted war for survival over scarce environmental resources.
The textbook written by Robert Tignor recognizes the negative effects of globalization on family ties. On the other hand, anarchy is a problem related to extended families and how it contributes to lawlessness.
The issue of health and epidemics is a major problem in Anarchy. The article presents the dire probability of a mutated AIDS epidemic and the threat of malaria in Africa. This issue is considered a serious factor in the erosion of the social fabric of our civilization. The unchecked spread of diseases is seen as one prompt for mass migrations that could, in turn, lead to group or tribal conflicts. Worlds Together concedes that developing countries at times demonstrate certain difficulties in containing diseases.
Kaplan views the environment as a security concern and connects the anticipated competition for limited resources, pollution, population, and ethnic conflicts. Tignor agrees with this to some degree by pointing out how fossil fuel requirements and usage led to the Gulf War in 1991 and how environmental issues often result in international disputes.
Worlds Together focuses on the paradoxical effect of globalization on cultures. It highlights the homogenization of world culture while also recognizing the diversification of local cultures. On the other hand, the Anarchy article emphasizes the role of ethnic or religious tribalism in modern conflicts and wars. It discusses how migrations bring with them religious and tribal ethnicity that erode national borders and redefine civilizations.
Overall, the author of Anarchy had a negative perspective and overstressed certain issues and factors. However, I agree with some of their arguments. It is surprising that an article written in 1994 was able to provide insight into important events that occurred two decades later.
Regarding his conclusions about what the world would be like 50 years from the time of writing, they are so grim that their complete materialization would be unrealistic. However, we are only midway through, but his belief that war-making entities will no longer be restricted to a specific territory” and that it would be difficult “for states and local governments to protect their own citizens physically” almost eerily forebodes the September 11th attacks in Europe and Indonesia. Connected with these is Anarchy’s vision of the emergence of “‘hard’ Islamic city-states”—later proven right with the rise of Taliban to power in Afghanistan.
I agree with the importance that he placed on population as a determinant of 21st-century stability. Overpopulation takes a heavy toll, especially on underdeveloped countries, affecting the economy and the environment. Kaplan’s extrapolation made a logical and plausible connection between population explosion, scarce resources, conflicts, or wars because competition for land and goods is as old as mankind.
Kaplan’s projections of how ethnic and religious conflicts could lead the world into anarchy, however, fail to factor in the spirit of global cooperation. As the influence of nation-states weakens somewhat, transnational organizations tend to wield greater sway. The author ignores the United Nations factor and its Peacekeeping Forces that have helped effect regional peace since the 1940s in his argument. While it was not able to anticipate and avert the Rwanda Genocide, the U.N. has since played a more active and considerably effective mediating role in post-Cold War international conflicts.
The Coming Anarchy is an insightful essay on global politics for the 21st century. Although the conclusions drawn were overly grim and unrealistic, the article did provide a warning about a few important developments that would later impact the world community.
Works Cited.
Kaplan, Robert. The Coming Anarchy.” The Atlantic Monthly Magazine, February 1996.
Tignor, Robert et al.’s Worlds Together, Worlds Apart: A History of the Modern World (1300 to Present)” is a comprehensive guide to the history of the world from 1300 onwards.
The present.
